PlanB published today its worst case scenario for the coming months. What does the Dutch analyst expect?
PlanB is known for applying the stock-to-flow (S2F) model to the bitcoin price. This model looks at the influx of new bitcoins and the existing bitcoins on the market. Based on the principle that bitcoins are becoming scarcer, the price may rise, he says. His model has proven to be relatively correct for years without major deviations.
For those who have lost heart in recent weeks, PlanB has shared a tweet that gives some hope again. In his tweet, he shares the following bitcoin price forecast:
In its worst case scenario, the bitcoin price is back above $47,000 in August. In June and July, however, there would still be fundamental reasons for a weak price, although the analyst does not specify the fundamental reasons. However, the current declines are due to “Elon Musk’s energy FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) and China’s mining ban.”
In September, according to PlanB, we see a small drop back to $43,000 and then climb back towards the all-time high (ATH) zone of $63,000 in October. According to his model, bitcoin will top $100,000 in December with a price of at least $135,000. Will this development be the cause of the next bull run?
It is striking that this is his worst case scenario, given the sharp increase this year. In response to one of his followers, PlanB also shares its best case scenario, which is a lot more positive for the end of this year.